Wednesday, March 18, 2009

How much does Intrinsic Value count when prices are at extreme lows?

The problem with disrupted markets is one of credibility. When fear grips investors and when sales are plunging is the long run relevant. The fundamental characteristic of common stocks is ownership of a piece of the actual business - for the lifetime of the company! Sales growth and profit are the metrics that give stocks intrinsic value. Prices heading toward zero limits the time horizon investors are willing to consider in valuing a company's business.

When markets are in this panic mode, the balance sheet becomes the primary focus. When debt comes due and payable in a bear market such as this one, survival is at risk. Many of the most leveraged firms have scrambled to refinance and extend maturities of their debt loads and thus build confidence that their debt is manageable. Companies that have an aura of sustainability can be good long term investments. The tools for estimating intrinsic value can be used by investors to estimate future returns from owning these companies' shares.

But using models to value companies where sustainability is highly suspect makes no sense whatever. And speculating about which of these "walking dead" companies might survive is worse than gambling: you can't even judge the odds!